Comparison of the single-step and multistep approaches to prediction of the solar activity index

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详细

We compared three different approaches for forecasting a time series of the solar activity index: iterations of a single-step model, an independent single-step forecast for each subsequent month, and a single multi-step forecast for the entire period. In each approach we use a neural network model as the forecasting model with the aid of a theoretical series of solutions obtained from the physical model.

作者简介

V. Kisielius

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Moscow, Russia; Perm, Russia

E. Illarionov

Lomonosov Moscow State University; Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Moscow, Russia; Perm, Russia

R. Stepanov

Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Perm, Russia

K. Kuzanyan

Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Email: kuzanyan@gmail.com
Perm, Russia; Moscow, Russia

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